Profiting from Daily Fantasy Sports

Can a sports junkie use their sports knowledge to make money from one of the new daily cash fantasy sports sites like Fantasy Sports Live? After playing at Fantasy Sports Live for 3 weeks, I would say absolutely.

The game of daily fantasy sports is all about skill. If you don’t follow sports and read up on the current news, you have a very slim chance of winning. The guys that put the research time in are the ones who are crushing their opponents every night. Players get hurt and under perform but over time if you continually pick better players than your opponents you will make money. If you love sports and checking on stats, you have a great shot at making cash with daily fantasy sports.

I’m no expert on daily fantasy sports, as you can see I’m currently down $7.50, but I see some guys making the same mistakes each week. You can tell guys will pick certain players just because they are from their favorite team or they just really follow the player. Being biased towards players you like does not make you money. If you can stay unbiased and just base your picks off cold stats and current news, you will have a nice edge on some of your opponents.

Having an edge is how you make money in poker and the same way you make money in daily fantasy sports. If you do your homework, you should have a positive expectation on every fantasy match you enter. Your main goal is to have a positive ROI (Return on Investment). Say you play in 100, $5 fantasy football 6 man matches and make a profit of $250. Your ROI would be 50% since you paid $500 to enter the matches and were paid out $750. $750 - $500 = $250 profit. $250/$500 = 50% ROI.

If you could sustain a 50% ROI, you would know that for every $1 you invest into a fantasy sports match you will be making a .50 cent profit on it. Daily fantasy sports lets you scale your investment easily by providing you lots of matches to enter each day. If you enter $100 worth of matches every day with a 50% ROI, you would be making $50 profit each day! Enter $1,000 worth of matches and your making $500 a day!

Being able to have an edge and then keep using that edge in multiple contests everyday is why I’m excited about daily fantasy sports. How sweet would it be to enjoy the excitement every day of rooting on your players plus know that at the end of the month you should have around a $1,500 profit, if your betting a $100 a day with a 50% ROI at Fantasy Sports Live.

Fantasy Basketball Value Picks for 12-1-07

There are 3 quality plays getting lots of minutes and only cost 10 points for tonight at Fantasy Sports Live. They are Beno Udrih, Juan Carlos Navarro, and Antonio Daniels. Below are their average fantasy points earned for their last 5 games.

Beno Udrih: 20 fantasy points

Juan Carlos Navarro: 20 fantasy points

Antonio Daniels: 22 fantasy points

I’m playing in a $1, 6 man 220 point cap and a $5.5 heads up, 170 point cap for tonight at Fantasy Sports Live. My team for the HU match is below.

T. McGrady
A. Daniels
B. Udrih
A. Jefferson
R. Jefferson
J. Moon
Y. Ming

This team should earn over 200 fantasy points even with the cap being so low.

Fantasy Basketball Injuries

Last night my teams were doing good until I saw Lebron James sprained his finger in the second quarter and never came back. That little injury totally ruined my chances of winning any matches last night. I spent 50 points on him and he only produced 19 fantasy points due to his injury. You can predict injuries and when they happen I look at it like taking a bad beat in poker.

Long term I think taking Lebron James every night is right play. Sometimes he won’t perform or get injured but over lots of games his true value should show. The same sort of thing happens in poker. You might be a huge favorite on the flop by 90% but you will still lose 10% of the time. It won’t happen much but it will happen.

Bad beats in fantasy sports is why you need to use proper bankroll management. I started with a $45 bankroll so I need to play low buy ins to over come the variance. I’ve played a few $10 bu yins which was very stupid. I will try to stick to $5 and below so I don’t lose most of my bankroll on one bad game.

Fantasy Basketball Value Picks for 11-28-07

Yesterday I won a match and lost one for a loss of $1 from the rake.  I only lost the $5.5 heads up no cap match by 5 fantasy points. My opponent took Kobe Bryant who had a big game with 46 fantasy points.

Lebron James  is still killing it. He cost 50 points but again did better than his cost with a nice 58 fantasy points.

Just like Monday night the value plays are A. Daniels for 10 points and M. Jaric for 15 points. I expect them to perform like they did on Monday and get double their costs in fantasy points.   I took Aldridge for 25 points.  He’s been a bit off lately but on 11/23 he put up 41 fantasy points.

Tonight I’m in a $5, 6 man $800 cap and a $1, 6 man 220 point cap.  Below is my team in the $1 match.

A. Daniels
B. Davis
M. Jaric
L. Aldridge
C. Boozer
L. James
D. Howard  (He better not have a crap game again!)

Dwight Howard Let Me Down

If Howard could of gotten me just 3 more fantasy points I would of cashed in the $10 contest last night. He had bad game, scoring a season low 9 points and getting me only 23 fantasy points. He costs 40 points and averages around 40 fantasy points a game. I got 3rd place in the $10, 6 man contest and missed 2nd by only 3 points. I did win my $5.5 HU match and placed 2nd in the $1 contest. Ended only losing .50 on the night.

My value plays worked out great. A. Daniels costs just 10 points and earned 26 fantasy points, while M. Jaric was 15 points and got me 31 fantasy points. Boozer, Butler, and Davis all had big games hooking me up with 49, 47, and 45 fantasy points.

Tonight I’m in a $5.5 heads up, no cap match and a $5.5 heads up, $750K match. My team for the no cap match is below.

A. Iverson
K. Bryant
M. Redd
K. Garnet
L. James
C. Anthony
M. Camby